Chapter III · Patron retention
Plate 07 / 18
Cohort rhythm study · memberships nearing lapse
Patrons do not vanish — their visits lose color first.
Monthly visit rhythm in the six months before lapse
A descending line shows average member visits falling from 4.8 visits per month to 0.7 visits per month, an 85 percent decline.
Average visits per active patron
Final six months before renewal deadline
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
M−6
M−5
M−4
M−3
M−2
M−1
visits / month
4.8 visits
0.7 visits
Fade signal
−85%
drop in visit rhythm
before the renewal letter
n = 18,642 patron-months · includes memberships with at least one prior season renewal