Chapter 03 · Retention 第三章 — 静かな離脱について
Insight Deck — Q4 2024 抹茶舎 Research
所見 — Finding 03

定期購読者は解約しない、静かに薄れていく

Cancellations are loud and rare. Disengagement is quiet and constant — readers open less, then less, then never. By the time the bill arrives, the relationship has long since cooled.
開封率の減衰 — Weekly open-rate by signup cohort
% opens · weeks since signup
Weekly open rate Still paying n = 18,420 · 2023 cohorts
The gap — at month 18
23×
PAYING · 91.2% READING · 3.9%
Ninety-one of every hundred subscribers are still billed. Only four still open the email. The contract outlives the conversation by a factor of twenty-three.
14.2mo Median time-to-fade
¥3,840 Annual rev per ghost
2.7wk Warning before cancel
This is the Matcha Latte Powder Green design system, applied by Curio Design — a design-style library for AI agents. Full Matcha Latte Powder Green guide → designbycurio.com/learn/starbucks-frappuccino-matcha-na