Ashline / Chapter 04 / Retention decay
07
Subscriber shape

Subscribers don't churn - they fade.

Loss arrives as a sequence of small absences: a skipped open, a missed drop, one quiet month, then the next.

Paid cohort retention / month-end index Index 100 = launch month 100% 80% 60% 40% 41% Month 12 retained Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec