03 / SIGNAL DECAY
MOIRÉ ATLAS PAGE 014

Retention field study · paid workspace cohorts

Churn starts when signal thins.

Weekly signal index before renewal A red line for accounts that later churn falls from seventy-five to eighteen, while retained accounts remain steady near eighty-three. WEEKLY PRODUCT SIGNAL INDEX Twelve weeks before renewal, future churn is already visible. WEEK −3: SILENCE BEGINS 100 80 60 40 20 0 −12W −10W −8W −6W −3W RENEW RETAINED ACCOUNTS CANCELED LATER EARLY-WARNING SIGNATURE 41% average signal left by week −3 in churned cohorts −53 PTS IN 12W