03 · Advisory Products 03 / 12

The cone of uncertainty

1

Track density is a signal

Twelve models converging on one landfall window carry more weight than any single run.

2

The cone widens with time

Days 1–3 are near-deterministic. Days 4–5 compound drift: planning windows narrow.

3

Category alone undersells the threat

A slow Cat‑2 stalling over a basin often outperforms a fast Cat‑4 in total damage.

4

Wind radii map the true footprint

Hurricane-force winds rarely exceed 30 nm from center. Tropical-storm winds reach 150 nm.

Forecast cone with ensemble tracks and category markers Advisory 03 · 06Z CAT 4 LANDFALL 25.1N 82.4W · 130 kt · cone days 1-5 D5 D4 D3
This is the Hurricane Track Chart design system, applied by Curio Design — a design-style library for AI agents. Full Hurricane Track Chart guide → designbycurio.com/learn/hurricane-track-forecast-cone