Chapter IV · Retention Register
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Patron renewal cohort · Silent-week threshold

Silence is the first departure.

Renewal likelihood by consecutive silent weeks

n=18,420 memberships · rolling 6-month cohort
Renewal likelihood declines as patrons stop visiting A line chart shows renewal likelihood falling from ninety-two percent with no silent weeks to twenty-four percent after six silent weeks, with week four highlighted at forty-three percent. Week-four renewal 43% risk threshold after four quiet weeks -49 pts from active patrons 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% threshold Week 4 · 43% 92% 24% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 consecutive weeks without a visit