Fading risk index before a lost pledge Weekly visits, replies, and renewal intent woven into a single signal lost pledge cohort steady patrons Line chart of fading risk index The lost pledge cohort rises from 18 to 72 over twelve weeks, with the first clear warning at week minus nine. Steady patrons remain near 16. 80 60 40 20 0 -12 wks -9 wks -6 wks -3 wks lost first visible fray 41 index · 9 weeks before loss 4.0× higher risk signal by final week